Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.571542 2.744158 2.928429 3.140804 3.380118 3.643002 3.955783
2025-05-25 2.302480 2.532876 2.792035 3.108603 3.489784 3.940662 4.524946
2025-06-01 2.129455 2.389070 2.691336 3.075550 3.560614 4.167083 5.008167
2025-06-08 2.016197 2.297544 2.634308 3.076674 3.658168 4.421833 5.549979
2025-06-15 1.940565 2.241656 2.610968 3.110714 3.792775 4.731945 6.210723
2025-06-22 1.840946 2.147233 2.529559 3.058271 3.800433 4.860387 6.617235
2025-06-29 1.752164 2.060129 2.450216 2.999683 3.789944 4.955713 6.981175
2025-07-06 1.668106 1.974010 2.366109 2.926823 3.749763 4.997686 7.257687
2025-07-13 1.635881 1.953030 2.366225 2.969676 3.881140 5.319779 8.093203
2025-07-20 1.610553 1.939203 2.374208 3.022826 4.031222 5.690235 9.112888
2025-07-27 1.588487 1.928137 2.384556 3.078952 4.189871 6.096589 10.327309
2025-08-03 1.545264 1.886083 2.348876 3.062944 4.228816 6.292583 11.133428
2025-08-10 1.502420 1.843576 2.311521 3.043519 4.262985 6.490120 12.029229
2025-08-17 1.458996 1.798570 2.268452 3.012403 4.274222 6.645127 12.878129
2025-08-24 1.418591 1.756166 2.227068 2.981023 4.281533 6.792519 13.768596
2025-08-31 1.390028 1.729290 2.207029 2.982091 4.346178 7.068781 15.184792
2025-09-07 1.371769 1.716224 2.206572 3.014400 4.470372 7.495691 17.367624
2025-09-14 1.333074 1.672463 2.158207 2.964618 4.435636 7.556490 18.253131
2025-09-21 1.294979 1.628451 2.107882 2.908969 4.385268 7.573842 18.990206
2025-09-28 1.255335 1.581146 2.051031 2.839711 4.303595 7.505711 19.341015
2025-10-05 1.245116 1.576337 2.058821 2.880452 4.441378 8.002139 22.703437
2025-10-12 1.237663 1.575207 2.072016 2.930955 4.603675 8.599431 27.434246
2025-10-19 1.231040 1.574984 2.086439 2.984253 4.777474 9.274689 34.027951